Aaron Holmes 
The MLB’s 2025 season has thrown conventional wisdom out the window. The San Francisco Giants have surged to a 20-13 record. The Baltimore Orioles, predicted powerhouses, now sit at the bottom of the AL East with a disappointing 13-18 record. These unexpected standings show how preseason predictions have missed the mark completely.
The playoff picture looks radically different now. Almost half of last year’s playoff teams struggle at or below .500. Recent developments have shocked baseball fans everywhere. The Mets lead MLB with a stellar 2.69 ERA despite missing their star pitchers. The Twins’ rough start has left them at 13-20. Aaron Judge’s quest for a .400 batting average dominates player headlines. The Athletics’ rising star Tyler Soderstrom has burst onto the scene with nine homers and a .881 OPS through just 33 games.
Our close monitoring of these developments reveals an intriguing story. This piece will get into the winners and losers of early 2025. We’ll think over what drives these surprising results and highlight what ESPN MLB pundits overlooked in their projections. Paul Skenes’ command mastery and Roki Sasaki’s concerning walk rate will shape our discussion of the most crucial MLB news and rumors for the remaining season.
What We Expected vs. What We Got
The 2025 MLB season has turned preseason projections on their head. Expert systems like PECOTA got it wrong in the first month of play. This created an unexpected mix of surprise performers and letdown favorites.
Preseason Favorites and their Current Standings
Baseball experts seemed sure about several teams before Opening Day started. The Dodgers emerged as clear favorites with their projected 104 wins, almost perfect 99.2% playoff odds, and 22% World Series odds—more than twice any other team’s chances [1]. The Yankees and Braves looked set to rule their leagues with 90-92 wins each [1]. The Phillies (91.5 projected wins) and Orioles (89 projected wins) also made the list of top contenders [1].
The 2025 MLB standings tell a different story now. The Braves crashed to a 5-13 start before showing some life, which earned them a “D” grade in April [2]. The Orioles’ performance proved even worse with a 13-18 record. They got slapped with an “F” grade and now sit at the bottom of the AL East [2]. ESPN MLB news can’t stop debating what’s behind these early season problems.
Teams Exceeding or Falling Short of Projections
Some teams have blown past expectations. The San Francisco Giants—barely mentioned before the season—earned an “A” grade by jumping to a 20-13 start [2]. The Chicago Cubs proved the projections right about finally beating the Brewers in the NL Central, grabbing an “A-” grade [1].
The New York Mets’ pitching dominance stands out as the biggest MLB news surprise. They lead the majors in ERA even without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Tylor Megill stepped up unexpectedly with a 1.74 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 31 innings [2]. The Detroit Tigers also shocked everyone with an “A” grade for April, though PECOTA didn’t rate them highly [3].
The Minnesota Twins (13-20) disappointed with a “D+” grade after projections showed them winning the AL Central with 86 wins [1]. Today’s MLB news often covers their injury-filled roster. Royce Lewis started on the IL—exactly what worried the skeptics before Opening Day [3].
The Biggest Winners of April 2025
MLB standings in April 2025 show some remarkable performances that have shaken up the league. Several teams and players have blown past all expectations in the first month.
Giants and Cubs: Smart Moves Paying Off
The San Francisco Giants have turned into serious contenders with their 19-13 record [4]. They sit near the top of the tough NL West, which comes as a surprise to many. Their success comes from smart offseason pickups like shortstop Willy Adames and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee. Lee’s MLB-best 11 doubles and .963 OPS have given the offense new life [5]. Relief pitcher Randy Rodriguez has been perfect through 10 games. He hasn’t allowed any runs or walks while striking out 13 batters [4]. Wilmer Flores has been clutch with runners in scoring position and leads MLB with 27 RBIs through April [5].
The Chicago Cubs have become an offensive powerhouse. They top MLB in batting average, hits, on-base percentage, runs scored, and OPS [5]. Carson Kelly stands out as their biggest surprise with an incredible 1.371 OPS [6]. His 1.5 fWAR in just 16 games matches what full-time catchers achieve in twice the playing time [6]. Pitcher Colin Rea has strengthened the rotation with a stellar 1.32 ERA in 13⅔ innings [4].
Mets: Pitching Staff Shocks the League
The Mets’ pitching staff has been outstanding even without projected starters Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas. Their bullpen put up an impressive 1.70 ERA in the first 12 games [7]. The staff has allowed only 16 home runs in 294 innings [8]. Clay Holmes (2.95 ERA) and Tylor Megill (1.74 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 31 innings) have dominated in the rotation [8].
Breakout Rookies: Campbell, Wilson, and More
Boston’s Kristian Campbell leads all rookies. He barrels balls consistently and shows great command of the strike zone [9]. Cubs infielder Matt Shaw could make history as the first Cubs rookie to achieve a 15-15 season, as he’s on track for 15 homers and 15 stolen bases [10]. The Athletics’ Jacob Wilson shows elite contact skills. His projected .287 average ranks among the top seven qualified MLB hitters [10].
The Most Disappointing Teams and Players
The early 2025 season hasn’t been kind to every team and player. Several preseason favorites have hit rock bottom, which has created quite a stir in MLB news.
Orioles and Twins: Talent Not Translating to Wins
The Baltimore Orioles have sunk to a disappointing 13-18 record and now sit at the bottom of the AL East [11]. Their rotation’s performance has been disastrous with a 6.04 ERA, the American League’s worst [12]. Charlie Morton, who signed a 1 year $15 million dollar contract this offseason, has struggled badly with a 10.36 ERA and 0-6 record in 24.1 innings [13].
Minnesota Twins, another team with playoff dreams, stumbled out of the gate at 13-20 [12]. Many experts had rated their pitching staff among the league’s best. MLB executives voted overwhelmingly – twelve chose the Orioles as 2025’s biggest letdown, while the Twins received just three votes [12].
Underwhelming Stars: Adames, Semien, Pederson
San Francisco’s $182 million dollar man Willy Adames has managed just one home run with a weak .205/.272/.268 slash line [13]. His defensive metrics rank worst among all shortstops, which raises red flags [14].
The Texas Rangers’ star players have failed to deliver. Marcus Semien’s numbers tell a grim story: .146/.215/.219 with only two homers [13]. Joc Pederson’s start was even worse – he went hitless in his first 41 at-bats [15] and barely improved to a .077/.189/.108 line [13].
Pitching Problems: Sasaki and Other Struggling Arms
The Dodgers’ prized acquisition Roki Sasaki can’t find the strike zone. He led the Majors with nine walks in just 4⅔ innings through his first two starts [16]. His Dodger Stadium debut against Detroit lasted just 61 pitches for five outs [16]. His fastball averages 96.1 mph but hasn’t been as effective as expected [16].
Cleveland’s closer Emmanuel Clase, who was “unhittable in recent seasons,” has lost his magic touch [12]. The Orioles’ pitching staff ranks dead last in the AL with a 5.47 ERA [12]. These early-season struggles have cast doubt on several teams’ chances to make the playoffs.
What This Means for the Rest of the Season
The MLB standings in 2025 will look quite different as we head into summer and beyond. Several key factors will reshape how teams stack up against each other.
Can Struggling Teams Bounce Back?
Teams that stumble early don’t always miss their shot at the playoffs. The Orioles and Twins face similar challenges – they’re both among baseball’s worst three teams when facing left-handed pitching in AVG, OBP, and SLG [1]. The Twins’ batters strike out almost 33% of the time against southpaws [1]. Baltimore’s biggest problem remains their rotation with a 6.04 ERA.
The Braves should bounce back from their 10-14 start and last-place ranking (behind the Marlins and Nationals) as their stars return from injury [3]. Many analysts believe Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return from his second ACL tear will boost Atlanta’s lineup, though he might not run as much at first [17].
Will Breakout Players Sustain their Performance?
Nobody knows if April’s surprise performances will last. Players like the Athletics’ Tyler Soderstrom need to prove they’re not just having a lucky streak – his card prices have jumped over 700% in just 30 days [18]. Past patterns suggest extreme performers usually cool down.
The Mariners’ offense shows promise to keep improving. They ranked third in runs (5.8 per game) and second in OPS (.804) in their final 34 games last season under Dan Wilson and hitting coach Edgar Martinez [3]. Julio Rodriguez tends to start slow (.642 OPS in March/April historically) before he finds his groove [3].
How Injuries and Trades Could Reshape the Scene
The July 31st trade deadline will be crucial [1]. Some key players might switch teams:
- Sandy Alcantara (Marlins): His trade value stays high despite a rough 6.56 ERA in five starts [1]
- Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox): He’s batting just .138 with a .255 OBP but could be great if healthy [1]
- Ryan Helsley (Cardinals): He might be the top rental reliever on the market [19]
Injuries will play their part in pennant races. Andrew Painter (Phillies, MLB No. 8 prospect) comes back from Tommy John surgery and could help Philadelphia’s playoff push without worrying about innings limits [20]. Some teams will need to wait for their prospects – Gabriel Gonzalez (Twins) and Ricky Tiedemann (Blue Jays) are still dealing with injuries [20].
Trends to Watch in the Latest MLB News and Rumors
The Phillies might need to trade for bullpen help after leading the league with seven blown saves [1]. Teams hoping to make the playoffs but lacking offense – like the Blue Jays (29th in homers) and the Royals (weak outfield) – will probably look for better hitters [1].
Some teams won’t have much chance to compete. The Marlins and White Sox will likely sell, along with Colorado, Washington, and Pittsburgh [1]. The trade market should be busy, with the American League race wide open for contenders [3].
Conclusion
The 2025 MLB season has turned conventional wisdom upside down. Baseball shows us why we play the games, despite sophisticated prediction models and expert analyzes. Teams like the Giants and Cubs showed that smart roster construction beats raw star power. The Orioles and Twins’ shocking struggles remind us that talent doesn’t guarantee wins.
Some of these early performances will naturally level out. Tyler Soderstrom won’t keep up this hot streak all season, and stars like Marcus Semien should find their groove. Still, these first six weeks have created trends that will shape division races through summer.
The next chapter depends on how teams fix their weak spots. The July 31st trade deadline will alter the map of pennant races. The Phillies need to fix their bullpen problems. The Blue Jays are desperate for power bats. Player injuries remain a vital factor – stars like Ronald Acuña Jr.’s return could reshape the entire competitive scene.
This unpredictable start shows why baseball keeps fans hooked season after season. Analytical projections give us a framework, but champions emerge from human elements – player growth, coaching changes, and competitive drive. PECOTA and other systems made their predictions, but baseball’s magic lies in its surprises. The summer ahead promises more unexpected turns in what’s already one of the most exciting MLB seasons we’ve seen lately.
References
[1] – https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/mlb-trends-that-could-influence-trade-deadline/
[2] – https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44953845/mlb-2025-season-first-month-april-grades-all-30-teams
[3] – https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/44389786/mlb-2025-predictions-playoffs-world-series-mvp-rookie-year-cy-young
[4] – https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2025/04/23/mlb-stats-2025-april-surprises/83209892007/
[5] – https://www.mlb.com/news/surprises-in-first-month-of-2025-mlb-season
[6] – https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/mlbs-10-biggest-surprises-through-first-month-2025/
[7] – https://www.amazinavenue.com/2025/4/10/24404512/mets-bullpen-appreciation-post-kranick-garrett-minter-stanek-brazoban-diaz-butto-young
[8] – https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/type/pitching/name/nym
[9] – https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/checking-in-on-10-mlb-rookies-after-first-month-of-2025-season-jasson-dominguez-roki-sasaki-and-more/
[10] – https://www.mlb.com/news/top-projected-mlb-rookies-for-2025
[11] – https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2025.shtml
[12] – https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-executives-on-early-surprises-disappointments-2025
[13] – https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25190875-chris-sale-willy-adames-and-mlbs-biggest-busts-1st-month-2025
[14] – https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/44885874/mlb-2025-april-all-stars-biggest-disappointments-players-watch
[15] – https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/article/mlb-trade-deadline-early-forecast-3-teams–cubs-orioles-and-rangers–with-these-big-needs-165657139.html
[16] – https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/roki-sasaki-struggles-with-command-again-cant-get-out-of-second-inning-in-dodger-stadium-debut-vs-tigers/
[17] – https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-all-injury-team-from-ronald-acuna-jr-to-mike-trout-20-players-whose-return-from-injury-could-alter-their-teams-season-210443194.html
[18] – https://sports.yahoo.com/article/rising-stars-soaring-values-how-2025-mlbs-breakout-performers-are-reshaping-the-card-market-165433211.html
[19] – https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/way-too-early-2025-trade-deadline-candidates-10-mlb-players-who-could-move-including-vladimir-guerrero-jr/
[20] – https://www.mlb.com/dbacks/news/prospects-looking-to-bounce-back-from-injuries-2025?partnerId=it-20250420-12761933-mlb-1-A&utm_id=it-20250420-12761933-mlb-1-A